Mt Washington Wx CAM
Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast
3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast
Product: 3-Day Forecast
- Issued: 2024 Dec 30 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.
Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 30-Jan 01 2025 is 6.67 (NOAA Scale G3).
| Dec 30 | Dec 31 | Jan 01 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 00-03UT | 1.00 | 1.67 | 5.00 (G1) |
| 03-06UT | 2.00 | 5.00 (G1) | 4.00 |
| 06-09UT | 2.67 | 6.00 (G2) | 3.33 |
| 09-12UT | 1.67 | 6.67 (G3) | 3.67 |
| 12-15UT | 1.00 | 5.33 (G1) | 2.67 |
| 15-18UT | 1.33 | 4.33 | 2.33 |
| 18-21UT | 1.67 | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| 21-00UT | 2.67 | 4.67 (G1) | 3.00 |
Rationale: Isolated periods of G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storming are likely by mid UTC day on 31 Dec due to CME effects from the aforementioned asymmetric, partial-halo event from early on 29 Dec. Lingering G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely, with a chance for G2 (Moderate) levels, on 01 Jan with the likely arrival of the second CME, also from 29 Dec.
Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
| Dec 30 | Dec 31 | Jan 01 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S1 or greater | 20% | 20% | 15% |
Rationale: A slight chance for an S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm event will persist through 01 Jan given the current total disk potential.
Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Dec 30 2024 0414 UTC.
| Dec 30 | Dec 31 | Jan 01 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1-R2 | 80% | 80% | 75% |
| R3 or greater | 30% | 30% | 25% |
Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected, with a chance for an isolated R3 (Strong) event, through 01 Jan.
Real Time Images of the Sun
SOHO EIT 304
|
SOHO EIT 284
|
Mauna Loa Solar Image
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The sun is constantly monitored for sun spots and coronal mass ejections. EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere.
Real Time Solar X-ray and Solar Wind
Latest LASCO Solar Corona
Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO). |
Real-Time Solar Wind
Real-Time Solar Wind data broadcast from NASA's ACE satellite. |
Solar Cycle
Sun Spot Number Progression This plot shows the Solar Cycle Sun Spot Number Progression. |
F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression This plot shows the F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression. |
Ap Graph This plot shows the Current Ap Graph. |
Solar Indices for the Last Year This plot shows Solar Indices Graph for Last Year. |
The Solar Cycle is observed by counting the frequency and placement of sunspots visible on the Sun.
Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES
Northern Hemi Auroral Map
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Southern Hemi Auroral Map
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Instruments on board the NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) continually monitor the power flux carried by the protons and electrons that produce aurora in the atmosphere. SWPC has developed a technique that uses the power flux observations obtained during a single pass of the satellite over a polar region (which takes about 25 minutes) to estimate the total power deposited in an entire polar region by these auroral particles. The power input estimate is converted to an auroral activity index that ranges from 1 to 10.
| Solar Indicies | ||||||||
| Solar Flux: | 255 | Sunspot#: | 183 | HF Indicators | VHF Indicators | |||
| A-Index: | 5 Ap | K-Index: | 1 Kp | Band | Day | Night | Item | Status |
| Geomag Fld: | VR QUIET | Sig Noise: | S0-S1 | 80m-40m | Poor | Good | Aurora: | Band Closed |
| X-Ray: | M3.4 | Solar Wind: | 336.7 KM/Sec | 30m-20m | Good | Good | 2m EU Es: | Band Closed |
| Flare Class: | M | Proton Flux: | 4590 keV | 17m-15m | Good | Good | 2m NA Es: | Band Closed |
| Electron Flux: | 7150 keV | Magnetic Fld: | BZ: -2.2nT | 12m-10m | Good | Poor | 6m Eu Es: | Band Closed |
| Aurora: | 3/n=1.99 | Aurora Lat: | 65.6° | 304A: | 167.8 @ SEM | 4m EU Es: | Band Closed | |
| MUF: | NoRptMHz | foF2: | MHz | MUF Factor: | MHz | |||
Credits:
Space Weather Images and Information (excluded from copyright) courtesy of:NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center
Mauna Loa Solar Observatory (HAO/NCAR)
SOHO (ESA & NASA).
Space Weather links:
3-Day Forecast of Solar and Geophysical Activity
Space Weather Overview
LASCO Coronagraph
Real-Time Solar Wind
Space Weather Advisory Outlooks
Space Weather Forecast Disussions
Space Weather Alerts, Watches and Warnings
Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO)
The Very Latest SOHO Images
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additions by Martin of Hebrides Weather and Ken True of Saratoga Weather
with 3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast text formatting by Jeremy Dyde of Jerbils Weather
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