272
FXUS64 KJAN 252036
AFDJAN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
336 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025
...New DISCUSSION...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025
Tonight through Wednesday morning: Weather conditions will remain
quiet through this evening as global guidance shows a weak sfc
low over the Tennessee Valley continuing its eastward push towards
the Atlantic seaboard later tonight. As this sfc low continues to
track east, an associated dry cold front will shift south across
our CWA later tonight. Sky cover will be generally clear with
clouds starting to build from the northwest shortly after
midnight. There will be a low chance of light showers developing
over our western zones heading into the overnight period as the
weak disturbance aloft combines with the cold front and limited
available moisture. HREF guidance is showing some decent dense fog
probabilities (40-50%) mainly for areas along and south of Hwy
84. Because of this, a Dense Fog Advisory has been introduced for
our southern zones including portions of our northeast Louisiana
parishes. The advisory goes in effect starting at 3AM through 9AM
Wednesday morning. Expect overnight lows to drop into the 50s
areawide.
The fog should start to lift across portions of southern MS shortly
after 9 AM. Clouds will continue to build from the northwest as
portions of the NW Delta could start to see some light scattered
showers Wednesday morning. The associated cold front will continue
its southward push towards the Gulf by daybreak Wednesday. /CR/
Wednesday Afternoon through Thursday: Northwesterly flow aloft
will prevail through the end of the work week. NW flow likes to
throw in a surprise from time to time, and for this round it will
be bonus rain chances with a disturbance coming through during the
day Wednesday. Overall forcing doesn`t look very impressive, so
not everyone will receive rain with this system. However,
sufficient instability may exist for a few thunderstorms where we
do see development. While no severe weather is expected, a few
storms could peak at strong to marginally severe intensity with
perhaps some hail/wind threats, especially over the southwest half
of the area Wed afternoon - we will monitor this threat for
including in our future graphics. Otherwise, dry conditions are
expected Wednesday into Thursday as the western portion of the
surface ridge axis builds back in.
Friday through Monday: The weather pattern will begin to transition
heading into the weekend as a southern stream trough brings about
low level moisture return on Saturday. The associated wave will also
serve as a forcing mechanism for scattered showers and thunderstorms
Friday night into Saturday. After a short break and lull in precip
coverage, a northern stream system will follow, pushing a cold front
toward the area on Sunday.
We`re still six days away, but at this juncture, timing looks to
be later Sunday into Sunday night for showers and thunderstorms to
push across the area along and ahead of the front, and peak
coverage for storms should be mainly along/north of I-20. The
moist airmass ahead of this system will help to foster a
moderately unstable environment, but later timing might eat into
the low level instability. Deep layer shear is expected to be
sufficient for organized convection. However, stronger forcing
from height falls and low level flow may stay just north of the
area. This adds up to potential for severe storms during this time
frame but less confidence in coverage and intensity of the severe
threat. For now have adjusted the slight risk a little to the
north, and pushed timing back more into Sunday night in our HWO
graphics. Keep checking back as the system gets closer.
Rain chances will decrease Monday, but a slower or stalling frontal
progression suggested in some guidance could keep showers around
into the day. /DL/EC/
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025
Quiet conditions will occur across the entire forecast area this
afternoon and evening with VFR ceilings prevailing across all TAF
sites. /CR/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson 55 78 56 81 / 0 30 0 0
Meridian 51 78 52 81 / 0 20 0 0
Vicksburg 56 77 57 81 / 0 30 0 0
Hattiesburg 55 84 56 84 / 0 20 0 0
Natchez 58 80 59 80 / 0 20 0 0
Greenville 55 72 54 79 / 10 20 0 0
Greenwood 55 76 55 80 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Dense Fog Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday for
MSZ060>066-072>074.
LA...Dense Fog Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday for LAZ024-
026.
AR...None.
&&
$$
EC/CR/DL/
NWS JAN Office Area Forecast Discussion
Mt Washington Wx CAM
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